DATE: 08-04-2011
I would like to have a honest scientific analysis where facts override my personal opinion. So please take time to read what I’m about to write. Back in 2001, who would have imagined that Sata could be popular now? From statistics, in 2001, Sata was beaten by the likes of Anderson Mazoka (UPND), Christon Tembo (FDD), Kaunda Tilyenji (UNIP), Godfrey Miyanda (HP), Benjamin Mwila (ZRP). As a matter of fact, Sata was in the distance 7th position from Levy Mwanawasa. It’s unbelievable now that Sata is a big short at Zambian presidential hopefuls. Do you know why Sata was so unpopular back then? I won’t answer this question right now.
Lets go to 2006 Presidential Election Results:
Levy Mwanawasa (MMD); 1,177,846 votes; 42.98%
Michael MC Sata (PF) 804,748 votes; 29.37%
Hakainde Hichilema (UDA) 693,772 votes; 25.32%
Godfrey K Miyanda (HP) 42,891 votes; 1.57%
Winright K Ngondo (APC) 20,921 votes; 0.76%
Now compare this with the 2008 Presidential Election Results here below:
BANDA RUPIAH B (MMD) 718,359 votes; 40.09 %
SATA MICHAEL C (PF) 683,150 votes; 38.13 %
HICHILEMA HAKAINDE (UPND) 353,018 votes; 19.70 %
MIYANDA GODFREY K (HERITAGE) 13,683 votes; 0.76 %
Against total votes cast, Sata with his PF jumped from 3.35% of votes for him in 2001 to 29.37% of votes in 2006 and finally again gaining to 38.13% of votes in 2008
Against total votes cast, MMD jumped from 19.45% of votes in 2001 to 42.98% of votes in 2006 and finally to slopping down a little to 40.09% of votes in 2008
Against total votes cast, UPND jumped from 18.15% of votes in 2001 to 25.32% of votes in 2006 and finally to slopping down to 19.70% of votes in 2008. In Mazoka days, UPND was only second to MMD.
From the above statistics we can see that only PF has been consistently picking up momentum in gaining ground. There is no reason to assume that PF will change from this positive trend. On the other hand, MMD and UPND are losing ground. Is it possible that MMD and UPND can gain ground? I think that’s an illusion considering the fact that the new voter register has not shown that PF stronghold along the line of rail, Copperbelt, Luapula and Northern indicated less registered voters than usual.
As at mid January 2011 the continuous voter registration captured 4,984,715 registered voters.
Compare this with 3,944,135 registered voters in 2008. It is logical to say that in 2011, we expect to have more than 5.5 million registered voters.
Let’s go to the mathematics.
Assumptions:
Registered voters = 5,500,000 (based on projected final registered voters. We may know the exact number before the end of this April 2011)
Voter turnout = 45.43 % (based on 2008 Elections)
Actual votes = 2,498,650 (extrapolated )
Formular:
P = rt(w + g)/w
Where: P = postulation of 2011 election result
r = number of registered voters in year 2011
t = voter turnout based on latest election i.e. 2008 election
w = latest poll score i.e. 2008 election in percentage
g = gain in poll score of year 2006 to 2008 in percentage
Table of Data and Computed Results:
CANDIDATE 2006 2008 Gain PROJECTION %PROJECTION
Sata 29.37% 38.13% 8.76% 1196504 47.76%
RB 42.98% 40.09% -2.89% 949242 37.89%
HH 25.32% 19.70% -5.62% 359283 14.34%
TOTAL 97.92% 97.92% XXXXX 2505029 100.00%
Assuming he still maintains his momentum and there are no surprises and all things being equal, this means that Sata in 2011 will win by at least 247,000 votes against RB based on 8.76% gain Sata had when we compare 2006 and 2008 statistics not withstanding that in 2008 he lost by 35,000 votes to RB. Don’t dismiss this conclusion. Using the same analysis, I had projected that MMD would win by a narrow margin in 2008. Now according to the above mathematics, Sata will win by scoring 47.76% of total votes cast. Had the MMD agreed to a 50 plus 1 clause, there was going to be a rerun. But greediness and arrogance of the MMD to hijack the failed constitution making process is going to haunt the MMD as they will see Sata win with a minority vote at 47.76%
Among the Zambian politicians, there have only been two who have stood out by their personal ingenuity and charisma almost single handedly to command an impressive electorate following. Should I dare mention them? The Late Anderson Mazoka and Michael Chilufya Sata. There is something striking about this old man called the Cobra.
Do you know why Sata was so unpopular back then in 2001? Believe it or not, the dented Chiluba name (corruption and Third Term Bid) has always had an effect on Zambian politics. In 1991 Chiluba was popular and so was Mwanawasa. By 2000 FTJ had lost popularity because of corruption allegations and Third Term Bid. He opted to field Mwanawasa but alas Mwanawasa was perceived to be an ally of a villain in 2001 elections. MMD’s performance in 2001 elections were thus not impressive. But Mwanawasa regained popularity through distancing himself from FTJ. Towards the end of his demise rule he realized that Sata was just vocal but not corrupt and for that reason he begun to get along with Sata. My humble opinion is that RB’s association with FTJ is going to ruin the MMD.
